Kargil: How will it impact Indo-Pak?

India and Pakistan once again thrust themselves into the limelight of the international community. All eyes were focused, yet again, on the South Asia region; this time, however, it was not due to bus diplomacy but rather the possibility of nuclear warfare. Within a couple of months the situation in Kargil is easing down with troops now in retreat. Many will look back at this event and wonder what lessons can we learn and have we learned? Firstly, there are those that will argue that India was very pacified in its response to the events that occurred in Kargil. That this was a perfect opportunity for India to surge a full-fledged war and maybe even capture the whole of Kashmir. However, others argue, that yes India has “won” this battle with Pakistan, but what will happen when this event repeats itself in another area, at another time? As Pakistani Foreign Minister Sartaj Aziz, stated in a BBC interview, “If you do not deal with the fundamental issue of Kashmir there will be many more Kargils.” Then, there will be those who will ask have we in fact won anything? And others that will ponder the question of how this will now effect Indo-Pak relations and the key issue of Kashmir?

Disputes over Kashmir between India and Pakistan have been ongoing phenomena since partition. In fact, both nations have fought three wars prior to the Kargil eruption. Each time, however, the wars have never led to any full closure and this has been an issue that has sparked numerous discussions. Pakistan has almost undoubtable been held to be in the wrong, and as Stephen Cohen of the Brookings Institution in Washington states, the Kargil incident can be compared to Pearl Harbor “tactically brilliant, but a strategic catastrophe.” In fact, Kashmir has once again gained the interest of the outside world. And many observers seem to be sympathetic to India. Regardless of this fact, there are still many individuals who argue that India could have, in this current flare-up with Pakistan, crossed the “Line of Control (LoC).” The decision not to cross the LoC is actually one that can be argued from both ends. There are those that will claim that India did the correct thing in not crossing
the line since crossing the line would have meant a great deal more loss: loss not only in terms of more money and equipment, but in the lives of people. One could argue that the loss of one life is too much; however, in Kargil the count has been a thousand times worse.

On the other hand, others will state that by not crossing the LoC, India has in effect left the door open for more conflicts in the future and this could bring around an even greater loss. In simple terms, the argument is “what guarantees are there that Kargil will not repeat itself in the near future?” Well, many will say that unless a plausible solution is sought and implemented the possibility for more Kargils is not a distant reality. In fact, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif himself acknowledges this point. As he stated on national television: ” [although] . . .we have calmed down the volcano of Kargil, . . . tomorrow the volcano can erupt somewhere else.” So, the question now is how will tensions diminish and peace be awarded to the region? When will the mentality of us-vs-them be placed aside and the concern for the people of Kashmir be acknowledged? When will we truly end keeping a tally of winners and losers?

Even in this eruption, the vital question of who actually won leaves a sense, I feel, of no real victors. Although, from reports and actions one can say that Pakistan lost the war, the actually reality is that the war was lost by more than just a single nation-state. The real victims in this no-win war were the civilians who were either forced to desert their homes or were killed in the crossfire. Also, impacted by this war were the family members of both Indian and Pakistani troops who were killed in duty. That is, the women who are now widowed, the mothers who have lost their sons, the children who will have to grow up now without fatherly figures, and the families who now will forever be haunted by the fact that their loved one will never return. So, in reality there appears to be no real victors!

Now, however, the damage has been done. We cannot deny the fact that life for those living in the region was grossly disrupted. Nor, we can we bring back those who have died in this conflict. But what we can do — and should do — is hope for a better future and work towards never allowing a repetition of this situation. Once this goal is achieved, relations between India and Pakistan will strengthen. However, currently the most pressing question is ” how will these bridges begin to be rebuilt?”

Sharif may have oversimplified the situation and possibility of peace when he announced in an address: “I [will] tell Prime Minister Vajpayee, come, let’s talk. Come, let’s take our people away from the path of war, let’s sit across the table and find paths to a better future. We have wasted too much time already, let’s not delay things further. Let us save our peoples from war and give them a peaceful and secure life.” This statement is very idealistic since in reality it appears that the possibility of talks now rest more on the issue of trust. As, External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh stated: “Transgressions of the Line of Control are easier to heal than transgressions of trust.” Regaining trust will be a key aspect in leading to any possibility for peace. Indo-Pak relations have most definitely suffered with this incident, as an official of the Indian ministry stated: “Y
ou can’t hold peace talks one day, wage war the next, and then again demand peace talks.”

Realistically though, because of the upcoming elections in India, and politicians too concerned with campaigning, the possibility of talks being held immediately seem virtually impossible. In addition, any hopes of instant negotiations are weakened due to the fact that a caretaker government is currently running India. This stalemate can in fact aid in resolving the issue; since, one can assume that with a passage of time emotions will have settled and cooler heads will prevail.